Oscars 2026: Sinners vs One Battle After Another, the race that broke every record

The 98th Academy Awards take place this Sunday, 15 March 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, hosted by Conan O’Brien. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” arrives with 16 nominations – an absolute record in Oscar history. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has 13 and swept every major precursor award of the season. One of them will have to give way.

Full winners list

Best Picture – “One Battle After Another”
Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor – Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”)
Best Actress – Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)
Best Supporting Actor – Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”)
Best Supporting Actress – Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)
Best Original Screenplay – Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
Best Adapted Screenplay – Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
Best Cinematography – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (“Sinners”)
Best Editing – Andy Jurgensen (“One Battle After Another”)
Best Original Score – Ludwig Göransson (“Sinners”)
Best International Feature – “Sentimental Value” (Norway) – Norway’s first Oscar ever
Best Documentary – “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
Best Animated Feature – “KPop Demon Hunters”
Best Original Song – “Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”) – first K-pop song to win an Oscar
Best Casting, first ever – Cassandra Kulukundis (“One Battle After Another”)
Best Production Design – “Frankenstein”
Best Costume Design – “Frankenstein”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – “Frankenstein”
Best Sound – “F1”
Best Live Action Short – tie: “The Singers” and “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

The night: what you need to know

24 categories are in play this year, one more than in 2025. The Academy has introduced the Oscar for Best Casting – the first new category since Best Animated Feature in 2001. Both frontrunners, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another”, are distributed by Warner Bros. The studio accounts for 30 nominations on its own.

Sinners: 16 nominations, an absolute record

“Sinners” surpasses the 14 nominations previously shared by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land. What makes the number even more striking: Coogler’s film was nominated in every single category for which it was eligible. Every branch of the Academy – technicians, actors, directors, writers – backed the film. It is a sign of cross-industry support that very few films have ever shown.

“Sinners” is a vampire saga set in 1930s Mississippi, Coogler’s first original work after “Black Panther” and “Creed”. Michael B. Jordan plays twin brothers who return to their hometown and encounter a supernatural force. The film grossed 369 million dollars worldwide – an exceptional result for something this singular.

One Battle After Another: the weight of the precursors

Paul Thomas Anderson arrives with 13 nominations and the strongest precursor record of the season: DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA. Analysts point to him as the rational favourite, with all the nuance that qualifier implies.

“One Battle After Another” follows Bob, an ex-revolutionary forced back into action after sixteen years off the grid, when a corrupt military colonel resurfaces and goes after his daughter. Loosely adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland, the film stars Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob, Sean Penn as the military antagonist, alongside Benicio Del Toro, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti. PTA has 11 Oscar nominations across his career without ever winning. That narrative weighs on the deliberations.

Preferential voting: the unknown that reshuffles the deck

Best Picture is decided by preferential ballot: each member ranks all nominated films in order of preference. The system rewards consensus, not passion. “One Battle After Another”, more conventionally shaped, may be better placed to build a broad majority. Gold Derby predicts five Oscars each. But records fall on both sides tonight: “Sinners” in number of nominations, “One Battle After Another” in consistency of precursor sweep.

Who were the favourites?

— Best Picture – “One Battle After Another”, the frontrunner on paper. “Sinners” remains a genuine threat through the preferential vote.

— Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”). Won the DGA, BAFTA, Globes and Critics Choice. Gold Derby gives him 90% odds.

— Best Actor – Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Gold Derby’s 67% favourite. Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”) apply real pressure.

— Best Actress – Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”) won the Golden Globe, SAG Award and BAFTA. Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) is the only one who could cause an upset.

— Best Supporting Actor – Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”), chasing a third Oscar, 67% favourite. Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), nominated for the first time after fifty years in the industry, has built a strong wave of support.

— Best Supporting Actress – The most open category of the night. Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) won the SAG Award. Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) won the BAFTA. Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) took the Golden Globe.

— Best International Feature – A contest between “The Secret Agent” (Brazil, Kleber Mendonça Filho) and “Sentimental Value” (Norway, Joachim Trier), both also nominated for Best Picture.

— First-ever Best Casting – “Sinners”, winner of the SAG Award for Outstanding Cast, starts as favourite ahead of “One Battle After Another”, “Hamnet”, “Marty Supreme” and “The Secret Agent”.

✏️  → Replace with full winners list and your analysis once results are in

Women: one nominee out of five in directing

Chloé Zhao is the only woman nominated for Best Director, for “Hamnet”. She becomes the second director to receive two nominations in the category, after Jane Campion, and only the eleventh woman in the ceremony’s history to appear there. Natalie Portman publicly called out the absence of women from this year’s shortlist at Sundance in January, citing a San Diego State University report documenting a decline in women hired behind the camera since the latest round of studio consolidations. Yet the night is largely carried by women. Jessie Buckley leads the Best Actress race, four women compete for the supporting prizes, and the documentary “Cutting Through Rocks” – a portrait of an Iranian midwife defying the norms of her village – is nominated for Best Documentary.

Iran: two films nominated, a war in the background

Two Iranian films are nominated tonight. Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident”, Palme d’Or at Cannes 2025, competes for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay. The documentary “Cutting Through Rocks”, directed by Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni, is the first Iranian film ever nominated for Best Documentary. It follows Sara Shahverdi, a midwife in a village in north-western Iran who became the first woman elected to the local council in her region. Sara Shahverdi will not be in Hollywood tonight. The US travel ban for Iranian nationals and the situation in her country make it impossible.

Drone threat, snipers on the rooftops

Their presence in Hollywood unfolds against a backdrop of exceptional gravity. The ceremony takes place two weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, to which Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel, US bases in the region and several Gulf nations.

And the FBI transmitted a memo to California law enforcement indicating that Iran had allegedly considered a drone attack from a vessel off the US coast, targeting California, in the event of strikes on the country. The White House disputed the reliability of that intelligence. The LAPD did not wait: a one-mile security perimeter, rooftop snipers, AI surveillance, bomb-sniffing dogs. Commander Randy Goddard, the LAPD’s incident commander for the Oscars, confirmed there is no specific intelligence pointing to the ceremony as a target, but that every scenario has been planned for.

Panahi: an Oscar tonight, prison tomorrow

Meanwhile, Panahi himself was convicted in absentia in December 2025 to one year in prison for propaganda activities against the Iranian state – while he was promoting his film in Los Angeles. His co-writer Mehdi Mahmoudian was arrested in Tehran in February, shortly after signing a statement condemning the crackdown. Panahi has said he will return to Iran as soon as the ceremony ends. A filmmaker who may receive an Oscar tonight and return to prison tomorrow.

The notable absences

Wicked: For Good, sequel to a film that earned ten nominations in 2025, leaves with none. Paul Mescal, praised for his role as Shakespeare in “Hamnet”, is absent from the Best Actor race. “No Other Choice”, by Park Chan-wook – the incoming Cannes jury president – was also shut out, to the dismay of its many supporters. On the other side, four non-English-language performances were nominated in the acting categories this year, a record: three for “Sentimental Value” (Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård) and one for “The Secret Agent”, where Wagner Moura becomes the first Brazilian actor nominated for Best Actor.

My verdict on the night

Oscars 2026: “One Battle After Another” wins best picture, “Sinners” makes history

The 98th Academy Awards delivered on every promise. Six Oscars for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another”, four for Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” — including a memorable best actor win for Michael B. Jordan. A night that will last.

“One Battle After Another” takes best picture

Paul Thomas Anderson claims the most anticipated victory of the season, taking home best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay in the same night — his first-ever Oscars after eleven career nominations. Six statuettes in total for the film, including best editing for Andy Jurgensen.

Sean Penn, absent from the ceremony, wins best supporting actor for his Colonel Lockjaw. It is his third Oscar and first in the category, after “Mystic River” in 2004 and “Milk” in 2009.

Michael B. Jordan and “Sinners”: four Oscars, one piece of history

Michael B. Jordan wins best actor for his dual role as twins — Smoke and Stack — in “Sinners”. It was his first-ever Oscar nomination. In his speech, he paid tribute to the giants who came before him: Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington, Jamie Foxx, Halle Berry.

Autumn Durald Arkapaw wins best cinematography and becomes the first woman, and first woman of colour, to receive that Oscar. Accepting the award, she asked every woman in the room to stand up. Ryan Coogler takes best original screenplay — his first Oscar. Ludwig Göransson wins best original score, his third in seven years after “Black Panther” and “Oppenheimer”.

Jessie Buckley, first Irish woman to win best actress

Jessie Buckley wins best actress for “Hamnet” — her first Oscar on her first nomination. She becomes the first Irish woman to receive the award. No surprise after a season in which she had swept every prize, from the Golden Globe to the SAG Award and the BAFTAs.

Amy Madigan wins best supporting actress for “Weapons” — first award of the night, for her role as Aunt Gladys, celebrated by her peers throughout the entire season.